The Chilling Stars: A New Theory of Climate Change Paperback – February 7, 2008

Note: This book review is about the 2nd edition which was originally published in 2007 and then updated with a postscript in 2008. At this writing, Amazon still says the book was published in 2004 (1st edition).The Chilling Stars (written by Nigel Calder, a former editor of New Scientist) describes Henrik Svensmark's alternate theory of climate change (solar cloud theory). In a nutshell, Svensmark, a Danish physicist, says that cosmic rays (from super novas in space) increase the number of low-level clouds, which cool the earth by reflecting sunlight. The rate of cosmic rays fluctuates, depending upon the sun's magnetic field: when the sun is "active" (i.e. high sunspots), then the sun's magnetic field tends to be stronger and fewer cosmic rays hit the earth, which means fewer clouds and a warmer earth. When the sun is "quiet", then more cosmic rays hit the earth, causing more clouds and the earth cools. For the past few decades, the sun has been very active, which means the earth should be warmer, according to this theory.This is a high-level summary but the book give a more nuanced view: first of all, Svensmark says that only the higher-energy cosmic rays (muons) matter because these are the only ones which affect low clouds. (Cosmic rays in general can be greatly affected by the earth's magnetic field, but muons are only affected by the sun's magnetic field.) Another factor is the solar system's position in the galaxy. Just as the earth orbits the sun, the solar system is traveling through the Milky Way galaxy over millions of years (so the relative position of supernovas varies tremendously), which means the amount of muons depends upon the sun's magnetic field and our position in the galaxy. Amazingly, this theory can explain why earth's climate has varied so much (from hot-house to ice-age and back)- something which can not be explained by the consensus theory of CO2-driving climate. Nir Shaviv, an Israeli physicist, has been able to strongly correlate these climate shifts with the calculated levels of muons, going back over millions of years.It's too early to say whether cloud theory is fully correct but most of the opposition is political, not scientific. (Note: Svensmark/Calder don't deny that CO2 warms the earth; they also acknowledge that warming- from whatever cause- will increase the amount of water vapour, which will lead to more warming- but they contend these effects are secondary compared to muons.)CERN is testing this theory as part of the CLOUD project (led by Jasper Kirkby). When these experiments are completed (within 5 years?), the issue will hopefully be settled. (Early results announced in 08/2011 as well as Svensmark's own SKY experiments support cloud theory.) But enough has already been shown to prove that current climate models, which deny any importance to cosmic rays- and which can not explain clouds at all, are wrong. (As recently as 4 months ago, I accepted the IPCC "consensus", but this theory changed my mind because it explains clouds. Clouds are the heart of the matter, not a minor detail, so how can the science be "settled"?)It's impossible to predict how strong the sun's magnetic field will be in the future. Some scientists speculate (guess) the sun is entering a quiet phase now- if it does and the earth cools again (e.g. another mini-ice age which last occurred in the 1700s)- then that would be the most dramatic proof of Svensmark's theory. But it'd also be a disaster for humanity since it would mean massive crop failures (millions starved to death during the mini-ice ages of the 1300s and 1700s). So even if climate change isn't driven by CO2- it doesn't mean that climate change won't remain a big concern. If anything, it seems that future climate is more unpredictable than we could have possibly imagined.

Henrik Svensmark with Nigel Calder have spun a great tale. We see the science, the scientist, and a glimpse of our place in the Milky Way galaxy. I appreciate the alternate hypothesis for global climate change - that high energy galactic cosmic radiation in the troposphere as muons leads to ionization and aerosol formation which leads to a modulation of global cloud cover (cloud-albedo effect).Svensmark falls short however, in his scope. Only the highest energy muons make it all the way down into the troposphere. These very energetic cosmic rays are not much influenced by variations in solar and geomagnetic fields. The absolute flux of these highest energy cosmic particles is what drives the global climate. This flux intensity is modulated by galactic structure during our orbital transit of the Milky Way. Our solar orbital transit of the galaxy creates a uniquely periodic climate signature of warming then cooling periods. These radiation changes make themselves evident on the tens and hundreds of millions of years timescale as reflected in the geological record (Veizer, Halverson). The short-term, lower energy radiation fluctuations caused by solar and geomagnetic field variations compete for dominance with the more familiar climate drivers. The geological record reveals a global climate cyclicity with a unique sequence of low frequency Hothouse and Icehouse climates punctuated with high frequency warm periods. Our planet's galactic orbital passage across the the spiral arm structure of the Milky Way produces a unique radiation pattern. Spiral arm crossings leads to colder climates. Less radiation during inter-arm crossings leads to hotter climates. This climate cycle is evident in the geologic record of stable isotope excursions found in ancient sediments and fossils. This proxy climate signature shows galactic radiation at the top of the climate driver heap. This flux sets the baseline temperature of the earth from which all other drivers vary. Galactic and planetary orbital dynamics, ice-albedo feedback, plate tectonics, volcanism, solar activity, and proximate celestial events play second fiddle (as directed by cosmic rays) in the exquisite climate variability our planet has experienced for nearly 4 billion years.

A very interesting perspective on the many natural extraterrestrial influences on our earth and its climate, especially our Sun's Magnetic Field Strength and to a lesser extent our Earth's own Magnetic Field Strength (which are both extremely weak right now) that reduce the Sun's Solar Wind protection of our Earth from deeper penetration of Cloud-Forming Cosmic Rays that increase Low-Cloud Cover and provide Cooling (i.e., Negative Feedbacks) to Atmospheric and Surface Warming.I reinforces the well-understood science that refutes the man-made global warming hypothesis. Most importantly, it underscores the very many diverse and powerful fully-natural External and Internal Earth Climate systems that keep our planet's climate in balance with its own Natural Variability which is renders Man's effects and especially the trace-concentrations of CO2 at only 400 ppm negligible.

The Chilling Stars is a sensible counter-point to the nonsensical CO2 driven global warming theory. It not only explains why the solar cycle is a more reasonable explanation it also reveals how the people currently taking advantage of a system rigged have attacked the idea and been proven wrong. Granted it doesn't give greedy politicians a reason to raise your taxes as does the unproven global warming climate change theory, but it does give a warning that if ignored could easily mean the deaths of billions.

Presents a completely point of view, and puts forward a compelling argument disputing the current politically correct thesis for climate change.

Svensmark describes a logic theory on how the climate on earth is regulated. A combination of cosmic rays and sun activity determines the cloud formation on earth and, consequently, also the climate. All warm and cold periods on earth can be explained. He also could prove his theory on a lab scale. Apparently CO2 has no influence at all on our climate system. With this information I was surprised that untill now we haven't heard anything of this theory on the news media, and that we continue to spend billions of Euro in trying to get rid of the innocent CO2. To have life on earth we need sunlight, water and CO2. If you take one of these components away and life stops on earth. Is that what we want?

The variation in cosmic ray radiation is a more credible cause to the climate change than the CO2-hypothesis.

The Chilling Stars offers a scientifically-based alternative to the current Global Warming debate, free from the “consensus” science promulgated by self-interested groups and individuals who are earning fortunes from trying to convince us that WE are to blame for the imminent destruction of our planet – unless we repent and return to the pre-industrial age!Svensmark and Calder take us through the painstaking research into an alternative theory to the conventional Co2 debate. Svensmark’s theory is that the cyclic variation of the intensity of sun-spots impact on the quantity of cosmic rays, “muons”, emitted by exploding stars in our galaxy which reach the Earth. These muons act as “seeds” which cause the sulphur dioxide in our atmosphere to react with water vapour in the form of individual molecules. In turn, these molecules collect together and act as potent seeds to create the lowest level of clouds. These lowest level of clouds have been proven to have substantially more impact on global warming than Co2.This book documents his progress and describes the quite outrageous reactions he received from some other scientists, one of whom compared him to Hitler. Credit to Svensmark, he names and shames! As the story unfolds, one senses tremendous excitement when his hypothesis starts to attract attention from such organisation as CERN, and the eminent Isreali-American astro-physicist and climate scientist Nir Shaviv. The result today is a broad acceptance by scientists of this remarkable theory. And far from being in the grip of global warming, Svensmark’s research indicates that we are actually just emerging from a cyclical global cooling phase.An unexpected bonus of this book is that the second half takes us through an extraordinary journey through our Milky Way Galaxy, based upon Shaviv’s astonishing research, to show how our Solar System’s journey has impacted on the Earth’s composition and its climate since its formation. This fascinating story puts our planet and our solar system into such an interesting context within our Galaxy, and explains so much about the history of our Planet.And finally - Chapter 9, "Postscript 2008 - Carbon Dioxide is Feeble". This chapter firmly but politely confirms with sound scientific evidence that attempts to deny the Sun's continuing role come to grief, the climatic effect of CO2 is now plainly small and global cooling would be the worst way to win the argument!

This is a tour de force to be read with an open and scientific mind. Even those who disagree should be stimulated to think deeply about the issues set out.