Keir GilesMoscow Rules: What Drives Russia to Confront the West (The Chatham House Insights Series)

An extraordinarily well researched and insightful book on Russia. What was appreciated is that the writer consigns all the what if pundits to the dustbin where they belong. He effectively dissects the mistakes made by the euro western world in their collective misunderstanding of the Russian mind but says so what. Spilt milk. This is the reality. So let’s deal with that going forward. Hand wringing is worthless. He has ideas that deserve thought.

As someone born in Eastern Europe, I find myself nodding my head throughout this book. The basic argument - that Russia does not function on the same set of values as the West - is something obvious to anyone who is born in one of these unlucky countries that found themselves behind the Iron Curtain (and who did not profit from the corrupt regime that the Soviets installed). This book should be required reading to the diplomatic corps and to anyone involved in designing foreign policy vis-a-vis Russia. Russia's current leadership has the mentality of a bully, but this mentality is deeply rooted in the Russian history and political practice. The Russian people have suffered themselves greatly when they were at the receiving end of this paranoid perspective onto the world. A political culture that does not take into consideration the damage inflicted on their own people (never mind pausing to consider lofty ethical principles) will not blink when applying the same brutish principles in interaction with the rest of the world. That this is the case is very unfortunate, but this reality cannot be wished out of existence.

A superb work of insight, clarity, analysis, and concision, by someone who has reflected profoundly on the matter. Keir Giles's work is urgent reading to anyone (all of us) who are endlessly hopeful, baffled, then disappointed when Russia never behaves in accordance with wishful Western expectation. Simply put, Russia is not like us, and does not wish to be like us. Russian interests are incompatible with Western values. This book deserves a much wider and more popular readership than its rather textbookish prose (sorry!) is likely to reach.This is a searing indictment of modern Russia, made all the more dismal and surprising by showing how little has changed since the time of Stalin, or, for that matter, 16th century Muscovy. Despite brief periods of crisis, upheaval, and reform, the country and its people invariably revert to type. Putin is no different, and we should place no high hopes in his successor. (The author warns us to be careful what we wish for: change in Russia is often not for the better). Like the tsars before him, red and royal, Putin presides over a medieval system of patriarchy, patronage, and paranoia, and shares with them an obsession with national security bordering on psychosis. Russia is only secure when its enemies are weak and unstable. Russia respects only brute strength and despises offers of compromise and accommodation.In the Russian world view Russia is a Great Power (we're using the 19th century sense of the term here). The West is hostile to it, and covets its natural wealth. Great Powers are military powers, regardless of whether their economy has the size and health of a diseased chicken. Only Great Powers are entitled to sovereignty and independence. Smaller, neighbouring powers must fall within the Great Power's sphere of influence and defer to it on all things.Laws are for the governed, not for those who govern. All wealth and privilege is in the gift of the state (rather, the supreme leader) and can be taken away at any time. Might is right. Injustice is a fact of life that has to be bourn. The foundation of society is the collective, not the individual, and the collective serves the state. Personal human rights, if they exist at all, are weak. This helplessness in the face of state power manifests itself in a depressing dog-eat-dog society where everyone, from the lowliest traffic cop to the head of the Moscow tax office tries to exploit everyone else even for the smallest advantage.The state rewrites history to support the state's narrative, despite all historical evidence to the contrary, and the state will insist and demand that this false narrative is accepted by the world. Currently this narrative takes the form of an aggressive religious triumphalist nationalism, defined in opposition to the failing, decadent, homosexual West. Criticism of the leader (e.g. for incompetence or personal corruption) is an attack on Mother Russia herself, and the critic can expect punishment.The author stops short of saying we're at war with Russia, but since Russia clearly regards even the most innocent Western contact (charitable NGO's, etc) with deep and hostile suspicion, and is actively destabilising the West by election meddling, disinformation, and testing Nato's resolve – in reality, Russia is at war with us.The author's one slender hope for change lies in the current millennial generation of youth who have known no one but Putin and have had enough of him; they are unusually bold (not having lived through the purges of the past); they're tech savvy, more likely to have online contact with Western viewpoints, and have no memory of the USSR or the chaos of the 1990s. However, whatever hope we can place in them is a long way off.There were a few omissions I thought odd. No mention of the way Russia's main export – corruption – is undermining some of the institutions that could help resist Russia's influence in the West: the banks, law firms, and accountancy firms, and how this could be addressed. Also, no mention of the one area where co-operation and goodwill might be possible: with Soyuz and the space programme.All in all. Are real eye opener. Five stars.

This book was published in 2019. With the benefit of hindsight, one can say that Keir Giles' analysis has been proved to be totally correct. Rephrasing the prescient conclusions in his final chapter, the West's goal should have been to assist Russia to transition to a post-imperial mentality that avoids war. Because of Russia's war on Ukraine, this has obviously been a failure. The reason for this is that the West did not invest enough in deterrence.In many ways there is nothing much new conceptually in this 174 page book if you are already familiar with the famous 17 page 1946 Kennan Long Telegram. However it is an excellent and well-written account of Russia's insane paranoia. It puts ample flesh on the bones of Kennan, bringing it up to date into the current Putin era.

Totally enjoyable. As someone having grown up in SU and immersed in Russian culture I learned a lot about myself too.Best summary of the book is on author's Twitter account, in pinned tweet titled "10 Don'ts For Dealing With Russia".