The Hundred-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower

I kind of liked this book, and learned from it, but also have significant problems with it.First, let me state the strong point. This book is great for being able to read key quotes from primary Chinese documents and sources. Most reviews are overwhelmingly positive, so I want to focus my review on the underwhelming parts of this book.Pillsbury is upfront about the fact that he used to be a duped fool and had poor analysis. He claims that he learned from it and has now changed his views to be more wary.To me, it seems, he is still falling into the same trap of being naive. The enemy is still a couple steps ahead of Pillsbury.His coverage of Golitsyn, a Russian defector from 1961, which opens up the book, is terrible.He dismisses Golitsyn by saying he was a "conspiracy theorist and would later claim that British prime minister Harold Wilson was a KGB informant." That's quite a claim by Pillsbury!In December of 1962, the pro-America labor party leader Gaitskell went to Russia. In January of 1963 he died of sickness at age 56. Harold Wilson took over the labor party and became Prime Minister. This is a guy who in the 1940s had been traveling to Russia.Okay so Golitsyn, who defected in 1961, says that Wilson is a KGB agent... So how does Wilson rule? By keep close ties to KGB agents and handing out jobs to KGB agents.Then Pillsbury goes on to imply Golitsyn was a Russian plant, notwithstanding the fact that Golitsyn helped catch Philby.Pillsbury says the real truth teller was Nosenko. This was a guy who defected right after Oswald killed JFK to say that he had special information showing the KGB was not behind Oswald. He even claimed that, though Oswald had been a marine, operated sensitive radar tech in Japan, and lived in Russia, the KGB had never tried to recruit him.I mean, give me a break! His take on Golitsyn and Nosenko is so silly it's hard for me to trust him.A couple more critiques on the China parts of his book...He frames China as being run by the "war hawks." But China is officially run by Communists. Xi sure seems like a Communist. But Pillsbury talks very little, or not at all, about their Communist ideology. A rather striking and bizarre omission.Another problem, his views on Assassin's Mace are myopic. He never talks about the possibility that North Korea itself if their Mace. Further, despite the fact that he repeatedly quotes Chinese manuals which explicitly talk about using electromagnetic weapons--"The side with electromagnetic combat superiority will make full use of that Assassin's Mace weapon to win naval victory"--he will only very briefly refers euphemistically to an "EMP generation" to attack us... Little or no mention of nuclear EMP attack. He keeps honing in on laser threats, or missiles to destroy our satellites, when it would take just a single nuclear EMP strike to achieve all the things that China says it wants to achieve w Assassin Mace.So bizarre.

I appreciated the author's perspective and willingness to be honest about his perspective and how it has changed and obviously been informed over the years. Having lived through, but not old enough to really have understood much of the political happenings of the 60's through the 80's this book gave me a new viewpoint to look through for today's international political happenings. I highly recommend this read to conservative and liberal thinkers alike. Mostly, I recommend it to people who take the time to stop and think.

What is interesting about this book is that the author admits his own ignorance and complicity in helping China to a position where they could become a real threat to the US and the world. I have worked in China and have two take away lessons. First, the Chinese make it incredibly difficult to identify the final decision maker and second, the culture is a "whatever it takes", rules, laws, norms be damned. That is not to say the Chinese are bad people, just different. Treating them, as our government has and expecting them to become a country of Thomas Jeffersons is just foolish.

This book should be read by everyone who thinks Russia is our main problem.What an eye opener.

China is now taking, has always been taking, and plans in the future on taking this country for a ride. And it is about time the US does something about it! When you read this book, you can draw no other conclusion.The US has a very open, trusting and helping culture, which separates this country from any other in the world and makes me proud to be an American (or at least it used to, but I believe we'll make it back). And China is taking serious advantage of that culture; compounded by the useless, bi-partisan bickering of our politics, both of which are playing right into their hands. Like a magician that distracts our attention from what is really going on. But this is not for entertainment, it is to build China in its Politburo's (not people's no less) interest, at the expense of severely, and potentially irreparably diminishing the United States. I pray to God the country wakes up in time to save ourselves or our children, who already are, will pay en even more tremendous price.

I wrote a big, rambling review, but I decided to keep it much shorter. The author answered many of the questions I had concerning China and it's global expansion (social, economic, military, religious ). I hunted down many of the author's research notes and I agree with the author: China is definitely molding the world to exist under the China umbrella, and they will do anything and everything to ensure it occurs.

Buyer beware this book caused me to have my review of it censored. I didn’t write anything controversial however to me this indicates the book is a must read because it had great content on things I guess I’m not allowed to mention...

A picture of the Chinese challenge painted in an easily understood format. I was left with a feeling I understand now the challenge we face with the Chinese ascendancy and the challenge that present to American dominance of the commercial and military world order. A real challenge we have to recognize and commit to winning.

The Hundred Year Marathon is an earth shattering account of how a whole generation of US government officials and China experts have gotten China completely wrong, and how US China policy is grounded in naivety and wishful thinking. Among the main misconceptions Pillsbury highlights in his book are; China’s Hawks are far more numerous and influential than were previously thought, and even mainstream politicians are not as moderate as they appear The US fundamentally does not grasp Chinese strategic thinking. China’s strategy is extremely patient, very far sighted, and relies on exploiting externalities and weaknesses, and most of all, relies upon deception The Sino-Soviet Split was never fully understood, and warnings from the Soviets were not fully heeded The initial 1971 opening to China by Nixon was largely a Chinese initiative, not an American one as commonly believedThe tone of Pillsbury’s book is not so much that we have been caught unawares, but rather that the signs are there, but many have chosen to ignore them through sheer idealism and wishful thinking. The nature of China’s intent is quite clear, an analogy is a Chinese artist and special effects maestro blowing up a Christmas Tree on the National Mall, China has signalled it’s contempt to the international order and it’s willingness to overturn it, only it is playing the long game because time is on it’s side. Pillsbury has highlighted how the Chinese are extremely patient, and very well disciplined, and have rigorously followed stratagems from both the Warring States period and are applying it to the present day. The key concepts are Shi, essentially the order of things, the momentum in the world, Wuwei, the exploitation of energy and getting others to do one’s work for you (eg the US depleting the USSR in the Cold War), and Shashoubian, The Assassin’s Mace, essentially aysmetric warfare or weapons that strike at an Achilles Heel. Pillsbury contends that a China centric world order is not coming around any time soon, essentially not until 2049, and if the GDP of China’s is triple that of the US, then China wins by default, however Pillsbury believes that the future need not be so bleak. Pillsbury has illustrated a long running narrative of national grievances toward China, wherein China is the victim and it’s rightful place in the world has been denied. Additionally, a completely fictional narrative wherein every President since John Tyler (a forgotten President in the West, but the first to sign a Treaty with China) has sought to contain and undermine China. As someone who has lived in China for 6 years, and have conversed and interacted with Chinese throughout the country, it can clearly be felt that such narratives and demonizations of the United States are very widespread, and widely believed. As China has had very little tolerance for any kind of vocal dissent from the party line, this hostility toward free expression is being internationalized, with websites critical of China being attacked, and denying visas to journalists and other critics of China, a sanction the author himself was subject to, but was rescinded in the hopes of changing his views. Pillsbury contends that we should be less afraid to be critical of China, as accomodation of China’s thin-skinned sensibilities decreases any chance of behavioral change and paves the way for a future wherein we all, or at least those of us who care about free expression, lose. Pillsbury’s book is eye opening, and as a China resident, I am unable to refute most of what he says about Chinese narratives, propaganda, or strategic thinking. For many, this book is a wake up call, for others such as myself, it confirmed and exacerbated previously held views. In short, a truly compelling account.

I was quite impressed by the books first few chapters and the in-depth analysis that MP presents in the book. I cannot comment on his main thesis which describes how China through a very strategic approach and a 100-year plan, it strives to surpass the US in economic and partially in military domains. There are two main issues with the book:- the views presented by the author although may be correct and deeply researched (the Chinese are likely to have a plan which is enabled through an undemocratic yet more consistent political system in that they dont live from tweet to tweet as US politicians do nowadays) however are in no way balanced. When he refers to stolen technology by the US from the British in the 19th century, it is in the context of this is how the Chinese have analysed the US's path to development. It could be less biased and more apologetic by comparing China's policies to US ones in the 19th Century- nowhere does he 'excuse' the Chinese for viewing the US as a global hegemon that uses economic tools and the USD post war institutional infrastructure to unilaterally impose punishment on its enemies as well as its military power to again act as a hegemonIn summary, he is a US hawk who is responsible for partly developing Trump's China policy. Nowhere is it explained that the US population enjoyed cheap imports and its labour and businesses could focus on higher value added products and technology. Nevertheless, a good book to read to understand how current US thinking towards China is shaped.MP seems sour grapes for the US has been outsmarted and outmanoeuvred by the Chinese.

As Cambridge-trained Chinese student, i would say this is A Good book to read, but it did not faithfully interpret China’s approach and intention during the rivalry with the US. Some translations are terrible, not sure if Michael can’t grasp the original text or he deliberately did so to fit his, or largely the conservative narrative on China.For me it’s More like an attempt for Michael to build up an explanation or theoretical foundation for the increasingly confrontational and aggressive China policy proposed by the GOP, and more recently, the bipartisan leadership. I am not going to say that’s good or bad, Americans have their analysis and approach to cope with us. All we need to do is to understand what some leading authorities think of us and, always be eager to learn more about and from your rival, and be prepared.

Very interesting book , that makes you rethink the reason behind some of the global incidents that have happened. Knocks a sense of reality into those people who have been ignoring China and focusing on the obvious rogues in the world

If you want to understand how the Chinese think or are perceived by the American then this is a must. Whether all the facts stated are true is another story