Transformative Scenario Planning: Working Together to Change the Future

From the intelligence of crowds to the field back to the drawingroom and back to the field! Awesome book for destined statebuilders!

Adam retells the successful and less successful stories of trying to change society using scenario planning. By bringing a diverse group of leaders together to plan the future, Adam has helped some countries move forward probably in a bit better direction a bit faster.Inspiring if you didn’t believe change is possible at that scale.

This is a practical guide to a powerful process for large-system change based on real-world experience. It acknowledges that the process doesn't always produce transformational outcomes - having the right conditions in place is a pre-requisite.This could be used to help the shift from the current business-as-usual scenario which is leading inexorably closer to the edge of an ecological cliff to a radically new scenario premised on closed-loop systems designed for a sustainable future. Convening cross society congresses of all the leading players to agree a new social contract for such a future is the urgent task of the moment and transformative scenario planning provides a methodology for organising this system-changing shift.This is a neat companion piece to Otto Scharmer's 'Leading from the Emerging Future' which describes the contemporary crisis of humanity and the need for the transition from ego-system to eco-system thinking and institutions - Adam Kahane's scenario planning provides at least part of the suite of methodologies required to navigate this transition. Together they constitute invaluable guides and tools for finding our way through the rapids of chaotic change that lie ahead.

What an important book! In a time of deep polarization nationally and (in some places) locally, this is a must read for leaders. Pragmatic, realistic, and hopeful, this author makes a strong case for bringing together key leaders with a wide diversity of perspectives and creating contexts that lend themselves to humanizing and making more effective the process of heterogeneous strategic imagining. No Pollyanna, Kahane offers significant, actionable guidance for those of us who are in adaptive change leadership for the long haul and who imagine a future that is shaped by the investment and wisdom of allies and opponents together.

This book is very helpful to me in developing new planning models for churches and other nonprofit community organizations. It removes the necessity to "consume" the expensive products offered by "experts in the field." I recommend it to anyone interested in learning how to factor the uncertainties of the future into planning, as well as anyone wanting practical examples of how planning based on a more quantum-physics-based understanding of participatory planning can actually work.

Kahane writes about 20 years of experience in performing scenario development in difficult, conflicting situations. While I would have liked to find more theoretical discussion, the report on interventions that Kahane does is very useful for practitioners and is clearly grounded in reality. Highly recommended

It is OK but hard to follow the author's theme. The train of thought jumps around too much. Theory OK

This book sets out to help readers that are unable to change their future unilaterally.It emphasises that by following a simple five step process, meaningful change was possiblein the most unlikely circumstances and between threatening adversaries.The 5 steps are:1. Convene a team across the system.2. Observe what is happening.3. Construct stories about what could happen.4. Discover what can and must be done.5. Act to transform the system.Point 3 (above) is poignant in that the scenario stories need to specifically highlightwhat could happen, as opposed to what you would like or need to happen, or what hashappened before.All the steps above are presented to assist the reader to understand that subtlety andnuance is implicit in the process. The list above, is too basic and unhelpful if followedat face value. The magic of diversity, impartiality, respect, listening actively andexercising patience are some of the ingredients that are key to making the scenarioprocess work. As these are not traits that are easily recognisable on the job, the bookhighlights their (and others) importance.Case studies include creating new political scenarios such as in South Africa andColumbia. I would have enjoyed the application of the 5 steps in a business context aswell as the process is a practical one, not limited to a national context. There isobviously significant relevance to business, social and sports leadership as well. (toname a few) The book is low but not free of jargon. This did not detract from my utilityand enjoyment. There are many valuable insights and anecdotes from practical experienceof years of experience the Writer has working with clients. There are also citations fromleaders in the scenario field, some of which he worked with or knows personally.The Writer appears humble and surprisingly free of pushing any intellectual agenda or egowhich gives strength to the narrative. Kahane admits that his success with the 5-stepprocess is mixed. He often says that the process is simple to follow but difficult to getright. I would imagine that with no two circumstances being the same, the 'actors' beingdifferent and circumstantial driving forces too, predicting success is impossible. Expectingspecific results is unhelpful as there are no guarantees.Adam Kahane's experience is very useful to help and remind us what to expect from aconversational style change process, where participants hold divergent views at bestand are adversaries at worst. He highlights the 'soft' issues of each step in the process,from the perspective of facilitation and participation.I particularly found the concept of 'hanging' views, remaining objective while notfavouring any one view over another, as useful and relevant. This sounds obvious, butit is easy to forget when under pressure. Failing to accept all views can be fatal, sothe necessity not to rush, to meet in comfortable spaces and to allow for time todiscuss, absorb, consult and reflect are particularly important.While the book is fairly short, it covers the process steps with sufficient sensitivity,argument and detail. While my Kindle at 67% started the sizeable number of Notes,Bibliography and Acknowledgements, I felt the book dealt with the topic well.The book would be a worthwhile read to people practising scenario planning at any level,ie., facilitator, organiser, sponsor or participant. In fact, I would especially recommendthat the book is read by all aiming for solutions in a polarised context. The narrative islogical and the stories memorable. The writing style is easy to follow. It is also usefulas a conversation piece in itself about the basics of scenario planning. Consequently,I enjoyed the read and recommend the book.

A good read!